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Can we predict Parkinson's?

Dr Alastair NoyceWe've given Dr Alastair Noyce at the University of London an innovation grant worth £35,000 to develop tests that may one day be able to predict which people will get Parkinson's.

The Predict PD project aims to recruit 1,000 healthy people aged between 60 and 80 who have access to the internet, and do not have a current diagnosis of Parkinson's.

"I'm very excited to be leading this groundbreaking pilot project.

"We're attempting to develop online tests that can identify people at higher risk of Parkinson's before the symptoms appear - something that has never been done before."

Read the Can we predict Parkinson's? - research project summary (PDF, 288KB) or find out more below.

Why do we want to predict Parkinson's?

Nerve cell networkOne reason why we don't yet have a cure for Parkinson's is because the movement features of the condition only appear once 70-80% of the dopamine-producing nerve cells in the brain have already been lost.

The nerve cells start dying many years before symptoms appear. But we don’t know enough yet about the very early stages of Parkinson's.

If we could identify people early – before the movement problems appear – we would be in the best possible position to slow, stop or even reverse Parkinson's.

Searching for the earliest clues

Ladies walkingTo identify people at risk of Parkinson's, Alastair and the team will look for the earliest signs of the condition.

Recent research suggests that problems including loss of sense of smell, sleep problems, constipation, anxiety and depression may occur many years before the movement problems of Parkinson's appear.

But these are all fairly common problems. Many older people probably experience one or two of them at some stage.

So finding people who experience several of these issues together may be the key to identifying Parkinson's in the very early stages.

Developing simple tests to predict Parkinson's

Alastair and the team have combined a set of 3 simple online tests that screen for factors known to be linked to increased risk of Parkinson’s.

Hywel Griffiths, who has Parkinson's, at workThrough the Predict PD website participants will complete:

  • an online questionnaire that collects information on various medical and lifestyle factors that may influence risk of Parkinson's
  • a smell test containing 40 'scratch and sniff' odours
  • and a simple keyboard tap test to measure accuracy and speed of movement in people's arms

The research team will then analyse each person's scores in these 3 tests to work out which aspects are likely to be most helpful for predicting Parkinson's in the future.

Will the project identify people who will get Parkinson's?

No. This is the first study of its kind. So whilst the online tests may suggest some people could be at increased risk, it's too soon to know how accurate or meaningful the tests are.

People involved in this pilot study will not discover their individual risk score.

A vital step towards a cure for Parkinson's

Placards 'We all want the same thing. A cure'This pilot study will help us refine our tests to work out risk of Parkinson's with maximum accuracy.

If successful, this project will lead on to larger studies to develop the tests further.

If we can predict Parkinson's, we hope to one day have treatments for those in the early stages that could slow or prevent the condition progressing - which would be a major step forwards towards a cure.